The American Geophysical Union (AGU) has issued a statement starting with "Several Italian scientists and government officials are under investigation on charges of manslaughter for failure to warn the city of L'Aquila, Italy, before an earthquake hit last year, killing hundreds." The magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck about a week after the six seismologists and a government official stated at a Major Risks Committee meeting that there was no reason to suggest that a series of low-magnitude tremors observed in L'Aquila was a precursor to a major event. The AGU states that the manslaughter charges are unfounded and will discourage scientists and officials from advising their government or even working in the field of seismology and seismic risk assessment.
To me, it looks like a group of experts estimated the low probability of an event but failed to emphasize that they could not predict the actual future. Everybody shares in the responsibility to protect people from harm, but how do we decide what measures are justifiable and who is responsible for their implementation? What do the members think? Email me and I'll post a summary of the comments.
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