It does appear that the time is right for a mass shift to EVs, Electric Only Vehicles, particularly as a “second car” and in some cases even the “only car”. This writer has pointed out that it makes much more sense to compare CPM, cost per mile rather than MPG, miles per gallon. For sure as gasoline/diesel approaches and exceeds $4/gallon, which computes to $.20/mile when your mileage is about 20 mpg. Even for hybrids that produce 40 mpg, the CPM is still $.10/per mile.
Once off Long Island electrical power ranges from $.04 to $.14 per KWh. A good number of E-only cars are becoming available now that provide a 100 mile range per charge with a charge of 23-25 KWh. Now the CPM is (25 x .14)/100=$.035 in this case---SUBSTANTIALLY less expensive.
AN ASIDE---Ford in promoting their FOCUS Electric only, uses the term MPGe, meaning miles per gallon equivalent. They are promoting the FOCUS EV as 100 MPGe. This is true if cost for KWh =$0.14 and the gasoline is priced at $3.50/gallon.
As mentioned in a previous blog it does appear that more than a dozen Electric Only models will be available both here in the US as well as Europe and Asia. Now there are going to be considerations as to the best motor type i.e. PMSM, Induction, Reluctance, or even the writer's favorite, VFSM, Variable Field Synchronous Motor. A friend of my son’s here on Long Island, is in a program by Ford Motors working on the development of a FUSION EV only planned for 2013. This is in addition to an EV only FOCUS available in 2012. Another rumored EV only vehicle is a Dodge van that will feature two motors, one for the front wheels and another for the rear wheels. This arrangement provides 4-wheel drive AND increased BER, Brake Energy Recovery. The targeted market here IS the young housewife (mother) shuttling kids locally to games, school functions etc. This is the market that GM claimed was insignificant but now realizes their error.
THE LI-ION COST PROBLEM---Just at the moment the most expensive part of the EV only car is the battery—particularly the Li-ion type. Just now because of EPA reservations the batteries come from Korea, India or China and they are expensive--- between $500 and $950 per KWh capacity. Economy of scale should help. Another possibility is that nanoscale engineering will let older battery technologies be re-visited with an eye towards improving the specific energy ratings. We’ll just have to see---but $4/gallon for gasoline and diesel is surely a driver. It is the writer’s belief that Ultracapacitors such as Ioxus Corp. units will be combined with the battery to make an overall more efficient power unit. It is NOT immediately clear HOW these Ultracapacitors will be best combined to achieve the greatest improvement in BER, Brake Energy Recovery. Much as Li-ion battery cells formed into packs have to be cell-balanced, the Ultracapacitor also requires some form of individual cell balance.
To date it does not appear that Ford is considering using Ultracapacitors and is willing to accept the BER efficiency using the Li-ion pack only. From the writers experience it appears that the loop efficiency of brake-reaccelerate is about 80%---proper use of SuperCaps, in theory would improve this loop efficiency to about 95%---nice improvement.
THE TAX QUESTION?---Just at the moment there is NO road or transportation tax on electrical energy. In great part this explains the huge discrepancy in CPM between gasoline/diesel and EV only. Politicians, animals that they are, cannot let this opportunity to collect more tax money go by. Now because the EV vehicles WILL be using the existing highway system they should legitimately support THEIR share of the maintenance/repair costs. In all probability this share will be greatly exaggerated perhaps to the extent as to steer customers away for EV. The writer can foresee “special “meters that will monitor the current used for EV battery recharging in such a way that the cost per KWh will be “adjusted” and the tax collected automatically as you charge in your own garage. Sickening.
Interesting---
Where is life cycle cost per mile? Purchase price and life are overlooked.
Posted by: pcss@earthlink.net | May 27, 2012 at 11:24 PM
To pcss@earthlink.net---To do a life cycle you have to define the life of the test item. For EV vehicles there is no set miles number. Of the cost elements the cost of the battery is the BIGEST variable.
Battery aside, the EV is lower cost than either the ICE conventional OR the Hybrid by substantial amounts.
Carl Schwab
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